Koalitionsrechner

Sonntagsfrage Bundestag

Aktuelle Umfragen zur nächsten Wahl zum Bundestag, ihr Schnitt und was daraus folgt — Stand 13. Oktober 2026.

AfD 28,1 % · CDU/CSU 19,9 % · Grüne 15,0 %

Stärkste Kraft im Bund wäre die AfD mit 28,1 %. Dahinter: CDU/CSU 19,9 %, Grüne 15,0 %. Für eine Mehrheit sind 316 von 630 Sitzen nötig — das schaffen rechnerisch 7 Bündnisse, 3 davon ohne die AfD.

Institutsschnitt aus 10 Umfragen der letzten 45 Tage · nächste Wahl: voraussichtlich Winter 2029
Mehrheit ab
316
von 630 Sitzen
Letzte Wahl
2025
23. Februar 2025
Nächste Wahl
Winter 2029
geschätzt
Sitzzuteilung
Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
Verfahren im Bundestag

Hätte die amtierende Regierung noch eine Mehrheit?

CDU/CSU und SPD stellen gemeinsam die Regierung. Nach dieser Umfrage kämen sie auf 238 von 630 Sitzen — das sind 78 Sitze zu wenig für die Mehrheit von 316. Bei der Wahl 2025 waren es 328 Sitze. An der Spitze steht Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (CDU), im Amt seit Mai 2025.

Wer regiert im Bund? — Regierung, Sitze und Mehrheit im Einzelnen

Sonntagsfrage Bundestag: Schnitt aller Institute und Sitze

Mittelwert der jeweils letzten Umfrage von INSA, Forsa, Ipsos, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, Verian (Emnid), Allensbach, pollytix, YouGov, GMS. Die Sitze sind daraus nach dem Sainte-Laguë/Schepers-Verfahren berechnet; Mehrheit ab 316 von 630.

ParteiSchnittSitze
AfD28,1 %203
CDU/CSU19,9 %143
Grüne15,0 %108
SPD13,2 %95
Linke11,2 %81
FDP4,2 %—
BSW3,6 %—
Freie Wähler1,0 %—

Welche Koalition hätte eine Mehrheit?

Ohne die AfD

Mit der AfD

Eigene Szenarien im Koalitionsrechner durchspielen

Umfrage und Wahlergebnis 2025 im Vergleich

Links das amtliche Ergebnis der Wahl vom 23. Februar 2025, rechts der heutige Institutsschnitt. Die Sitzspalten zeigen, was sich daraus im Bundestag ergäbe — die rechte Spalte ist eine Rechnung, keine Prognose. Ein Strich bedeutet: Die Partei saß nach dieser Wahl nicht im Parlament — meist, weil sie an der Fünf-Prozent-Hürde scheiterte.

ParteiWahl 2025Umfrage DifferenzSitze 2025 Sitze heute
AfD20,8 %28,1 %+7,3152203
CDU/CSU28,5 %19,9 %-8,6208143
Grüne11,6 %15,0 %+3,485108
SPD16,4 %13,2 %-3,212095
Linke8,8 %11,2 %+2,46481
FDP—4,2 %———
BSW—3,6 %———
Freie Wähler—1,0 %———

Wer steht an der Fünf-Prozent-Hürde?

Im Bereich zwischen 3,5 und 6,5 Prozent liegen zurzeit: FDP (4,2 %), BSW (3,6 %). Umfragen haben eine Unschärfe von typischerweise ±2,5 Prozentpunkten — diese Parteien können am Wahltag auf beiden Seiten der Hürde landen, und davon hängt die ganze Sitzverteilung ab: Scheitert eine Partei, verteilen sich ihre Stimmen rechnerisch auf alle übrigen.

Alle Umfragen der letzten zwölf Monate

DatumInstitutAfDCDU/CSUGrüneSPDLinkeFDPBSWFreie Wähler
13. Oktober 2026INSA30,0 %18,5 %14,0 %13,5 %10,0 %4,5 %3,5 %—
13. Oktober 2026Forsa26,0 %19,0 %17,0 %14,0 %12,0 %4,0 %——
11. Oktober 2026INSA30,0 %19,0 %14,0 %13,0 %10,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
8. Oktober 2026Ipsos28,0 %20,0 %15,0 %13,0 %12,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
8. Oktober 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen28,0 %21,0 %15,0 %13,0 %12,0 %3,0 %——
6. Oktober 2026Forsa26,0 %19,0 %17,0 %14,0 %11,0 %4,0 %——
5. Oktober 2026INSA30,5 %17,5 %14,5 %14,5 %10,5 %4,5 %3,5 %—
3. Oktober 2026INSA30,0 %18,0 %14,0 %14,0 %10,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
1. Oktober 2026Infratest dimap27,0 %20,0 %16,0 %13,0 %11,0 %4,0 %——
29. September 2026INSA29,5 %19,0 %14,5 %14,5 %10,0 %4,0 %3,5 %—
29. September 2026Forsa26,0 %19,0 %16,0 %14,0 %12,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
26. September 2026INSA29,0 %19,0 %15,0 %14,0 %10,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
25. September 2026Verian (Emnid)28,0 %20,0 %15,0 %14,0 %12,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
25. September 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen28,0 %21,0 %14,0 %13,0 %12,0 %3,0 %——
24. September 2026Allensbach28,0 %23,0 %14,0 %13,0 %10,0 %5,0 %——
22. September 2026INSA29,5 %19,5 %13,5 %13,5 %10,5 %4,5 %3,5 %—
22. September 2026Forsa27,0 %20,0 %17,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
20. September 2026INSA29,0 %20,0 %14,0 %13,0 %11,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
16. September 2026pollytix27,0 %19,0 %14,0 %14,0 %12,0 %5,0 %5,0 %—
15. September 2026INSA29,0 %19,5 %14,0 %12,5 %10,5 %4,5 %3,5 %—
15. September 2026Forsa27,0 %20,0 %18,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
15. September 2026YouGov29,0 %18,0 %16,0 %13,0 %10,0 %5,0 %4,0 %—
14. September 2026GMS30,0 %20,0 %14,0 %11,0 %11,0 %4,0 %3,0 %1,0 %
12. September 2026INSA29,0 %20,0 %14,0 %13,0 %10,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
8. September 2026pollytix29,0 %20,0 %13,0 %14,0 %11,0 %5,0 %4,0 %—
8. September 2026INSA29,0 %19,5 %13,5 %12,5 %10,5 %4,5 %4,0 %—
8. September 2026Forsa28,0 %21,0 %16,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
5. September 2026INSA28,0 %20,0 %13,0 %13,0 %10,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
3. September 2026Infratest dimap27,0 %21,0 %15,0 %13,0 %12,0 %4,0 %——
2. September 2026Ipsos27,0 %21,0 %15,0 %12,0 %13,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
1. September 2026INSA29,0 %20,5 %13,5 %12,0 %10,5 %4,5 %3,5 %—
1. September 2026Forsa28,0 %21,0 %16,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %——
29. August 2026INSA29,0 %20,0 %13,0 %12,0 %10,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
28. August 2026Verian (Emnid)28,0 %20,0 %16,0 %13,0 %12,0 %4,0 %2,0 %—
25. August 2026INSA29,0 %20,5 %13,5 %12,0 %11,0 %4,5 %3,0 %—
25. August 2026Forsa28,0 %21,0 %16,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %——
23. August 2026INSA29,0 %21,0 %13,0 %12,0 %11,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
21. August 2026pollytix28,0 %20,0 %13,0 %15,0 %11,0 %5,0 %4,0 %—
21. August 2026Allensbach27,5 %22,5 %13,0 %13,0 %11,0 %6,0 %——
20. August 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen27,0 %22,0 %14,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %——
18. August 2026YouGov28,0 %20,0 %15,0 %12,0 %12,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
18. August 2026INSA28,5 %20,5 %13,0 %12,0 %12,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
18. August 2026Forsa28,0 %21,0 %16,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %——
15. August 2026INSA28,0 %20,0 %13,0 %12,0 %12,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
11. August 2026INSA28,5 %20,5 %13,0 %12,5 %11,5 %4,5 %3,0 %—
11. August 2026Forsa28,0 %21,0 %16,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %——
8. August 2026INSA28,0 %21,0 %13,0 %12,0 %11,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
6. August 2026Infratest dimap28,0 %21,0 %15,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %——
6. August 2026Ipsos28,0 %21,0 %15,0 %12,0 %13,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
4. August 2026INSA28,0 %21,0 %13,5 %12,0 %11,0 %5,0 %4,0 %—
4. August 2026Forsa28,0 %21,0 %16,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %——
2. August 2026INSA28,0 %21,0 %14,0 %12,0 %11,0 %5,0 %4,0 %—
31. Juli 2026Verian (Emnid)27,0 %21,0 %15,0 %13,0 %12,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
31. Juli 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen28,0 %23,0 %13,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %——
28. Juli 2026Forsa27,0 %21,0 %16,0 %12,0 %13,0 %4,0 %——
28. Juli 2026INSA28,0 %21,0 %13,5 %12,5 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
25. Juli 2026INSA28,0 %21,0 %14,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
23. Juli 2026Allensbach26,5 %24,0 %13,0 %13,0 %10,0 %5,5 %——
21. Juli 2026INSA29,0 %20,5 %13,0 %13,0 %10,5 %4,5 %3,5 %—
21. Juli 2026Forsa26,0 %22,0 %16,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %——
20. Juli 2026GMS28,0 %23,0 %13,0 %11,0 %10,0 %5,0 %2,0 %1,0 %
18. Juli 2026INSA29,0 %21,0 %13,0 %13,0 %10,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
17. Juli 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen27,0 %23,0 %14,0 %12,0 %13,0 %4,0 %——
14. Juli 2026INSA28,5 %21,5 %13,0 %12,5 %10,5 %4,0 %4,0 %—
14. Juli 2026Forsa26,0 %22,0 %16,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %——
14. Juli 2026YouGov27,0 %20,0 %14,0 %12,0 %12,0 %5,0 %4,0 %—
11. Juli 2026INSA28,0 %22,0 %12,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
9. Juli 2026Ipsos28,0 %22,0 %14,0 %13,0 %13,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
7. Juli 2026INSA29,0 %22,0 %13,0 %12,5 %10,5 %4,0 %4,0 %—
7. Juli 2026Forsa26,0 %22,0 %15,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
4. Juli 2026INSA29,0 %21,0 %13,0 %13,0 %10,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
3. Juli 2026Verian (Emnid)27,0 %22,0 %15,0 %13,0 %11,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
2. Juli 2026Infratest dimap27,0 %22,0 %15,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %——
30. Juni 2026INSA29,0 %22,0 %13,0 %12,0 %10,5 %4,0 %3,5 %—
30. Juni 2026Forsa26,0 %22,0 %15,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
27. Juni 2026INSA29,0 %22,0 %13,0 %12,0 %10,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
24. Juni 2026pollytix28,0 %21,0 %13,0 %14,0 %11,0 %5,0 %4,0 %—
24. Juni 2026Allensbach28,0 %24,0 %13,0 %12,5 %10,0 %5,5 %——
23. Juni 2026INSA29,0 %21,5 %13,0 %12,5 %10,5 %4,0 %3,5 %—
23. Juni 2026Forsa27,0 %22,0 %15,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
20. Juni 2026INSA29,0 %22,0 %13,0 %13,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
19. Juni 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen28,0 %24,0 %12,0 %13,0 %11,0 %4,0 %——
16. Juni 2026INSA29,0 %22,0 %14,5 %12,0 %10,5 %3,5 %3,5 %—
16. Juni 2026Forsa27,0 %21,0 %15,0 %12,0 %11,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
16. Juni 2026YouGov29,0 %20,0 %14,0 %12,0 %12,0 %5,0 %4,0 %—
13. Juni 2026INSA29,0 %22,0 %14,0 %13,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
11. Juni 2026Ipsos27,0 %23,0 %14,0 %13,0 %12,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
9. Juni 2026INSA29,0 %21,0 %14,5 %12,0 %10,5 %3,5 %3,5 %—
9. Juni 2026Forsa27,0 %22,0 %15,0 %11,0 %11,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
6. Juni 2026INSA29,0 %21,0 %14,0 %12,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
5. Juni 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen27,0 %25,0 %14,0 %12,0 %11,0 %3,0 %——
3. Juni 2026Verian (Emnid)27,0 %23,0 %15,0 %13,0 %10,0 %4,0 %2,0 %—
3. Juni 2026Infratest dimap27,0 %23,0 %14,0 %13,0 %10,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
2. Juni 2026Forsa27,0 %21,0 %15,0 %12,0 %11,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
2. Juni 2026INSA29,0 %22,0 %13,5 %12,0 %10,5 %3,5 %3,5 %—
1. Juni 2026GMS27,0 %23,0 %16,0 %11,0 %11,0 %5,0 %2,0 %2,0 %
30. Mai 2026INSA29,0 %22,0 %14,0 %12,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
26. Mai 2026INSA29,0 %22,0 %14,0 %12,0 %10,5 %4,0 %3,0 %—
26. Mai 2026Forsa27,0 %22,0 %15,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
23. Mai 2026INSA29,0 %22,0 %14,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
22. Mai 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen26,0 %24,0 %15,0 %12,0 %12,0 %3,0 %——
19. Mai 2026INSA29,0 %22,0 %14,0 %12,5 %10,5 %3,5 %3,5 %—
19. Mai 2026Forsa28,0 %22,0 %14,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
16. Mai 2026INSA29,0 %22,0 %14,0 %12,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
13. Mai 2026Ipsos26,0 %23,0 %14,0 %13,0 %12,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
12. Mai 2026YouGov28,0 %22,0 %13,0 %13,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
12. Mai 2026Forsa27,0 %22,0 %15,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %——
12. Mai 2026INSA28,0 %23,0 %12,5 %13,0 %11,0 %3,5 %3,5 %—
11. Mai 2026Allensbach26,0 %25,0 %14,0 %12,5 %10,0 %4,5 %——
9. Mai 2026INSA28,0 %23,0 %13,0 %13,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
8. Mai 2026Verian (Emnid)25,0 %24,0 %15,0 %13,0 %10,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
8. Mai 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen27,0 %25,0 %13,0 %12,0 %11,0 %3,0 %——
7. Mai 2026Infratest dimap27,0 %24,0 %15,0 %12,0 %10,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
5. Mai 2026Forsa27,0 %22,0 %16,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %——
5. Mai 2026INSA27,5 %24,0 %13,0 %13,5 %10,5 %4,0 %3,5 %—
2. Mai 2026INSA28,0 %24,0 %13,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
28. April 2026INSA28,0 %23,5 %12,5 %14,0 %11,0 %3,5 %3,5 %—
28. April 2026Forsa27,0 %22,0 %15,0 %12,0 %12,0 %4,0 %——
25. April 2026INSA28,0 %24,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
21. April 2026Forsa26,0 %24,0 %15,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %——
21. April 2026INSA26,5 %24,0 %12,5 %14,0 %11,0 %3,5 %3,5 %—
18. April 2026INSA27,0 %24,0 %13,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
17. April 2026Allensbach25,0 %26,0 %13,0 %14,0 %10,0 %4,0 %——
17. April 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen26,0 %25,0 %14,0 %12,0 %11,0 %3,0 %——
15. April 2026YouGov27,0 %23,0 %14,0 %13,0 %10,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
14. April 2026INSA26,0 %25,0 %12,5 %14,0 %10,0 %3,5 %3,5 %—
14. April 2026Forsa26,0 %24,0 %15,0 %12,0 %11,0 %4,0 %——
11. April 2026INSA26,0 %25,0 %13,0 %14,0 %10,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
10. April 2026Verian (Emnid)25,0 %25,0 %14,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
8. April 2026INSA26,0 %25,0 %12,0 %13,0 %10,5 %3,5 %4,0 %—
7. April 2026Forsa26,0 %26,0 %15,0 %12,0 %10,0 %———
4. April 2026INSA26,0 %25,0 %12,0 %13,0 %11,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
1. April 2026Ipsos25,0 %24,0 %14,0 %14,0 %11,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
1. April 2026Infratest dimap25,0 %26,0 %14,0 %12,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
31. März 2026Forsa25,0 %26,0 %15,0 %12,0 %10,0 %—3,0 %—
31. März 2026INSA26,0 %26,0 %12,0 %14,5 %10,5 %3,0 %3,5 %—
28. März 2026INSA26,0 %26,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
27. März 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen26,0 %26,0 %15,0 %13,0 %10,0 %———
24. März 2026Forsa25,0 %26,0 %15,0 %12,0 %10,0 %—3,0 %—
24. März 2026INSA26,0 %26,0 %12,0 %15,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,5 %—
21. März 2026Allensbach23,0 %28,0 %11,5 %16,0 %10,0 %4,0 %——
21. März 2026INSA25,0 %26,0 %12,0 %15,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
17. März 2026INSA26,0 %25,5 %12,0 %15,0 %10,5 %3,0 %3,5 %—
17. März 2026YouGov26,0 %26,0 %13,0 %14,0 %9,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
17. März 2026Forsa23,0 %27,0 %15,0 %12,0 %11,0 %—3,0 %—
14. März 2026INSA25,0 %25,0 %12,0 %15,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
12. März 2026Verian (Emnid)23,0 %26,0 %13,0 %15,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
10. März 2026Forsa24,0 %26,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
10. März 2026INSA24,5 %26,0 %11,5 %15,5 %10,5 %3,5 %3,5 %—
7. März 2026INSA25,0 %26,0 %11,0 %15,0 %11,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
5. März 2026Ipsos24,0 %25,0 %14,0 %15,0 %11,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
5. März 2026Infratest dimap23,0 %28,0 %13,0 %14,0 %9,0 %—4,0 %—
3. März 2026GMS24,0 %26,0 %12,0 %16,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %2,0 %
3. März 2026INSA25,0 %25,5 %11,5 %16,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,5 %—
3. März 2026Forsa24,0 %26,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
2. März 2026Allensbach24,0 %27,0 %12,0 %16,0 %10,0 %4,0 %——
28. Februar 2026INSA25,0 %26,0 %11,0 %16,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
27. Februar 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen24,0 %26,0 %12,0 %15,0 %11,0 %———
24. Februar 2026Forsa24,0 %26,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
24. Februar 2026INSA25,0 %25,0 %11,0 %15,5 %11,0 %3,5 %3,5 %—
22. Februar 2026INSA25,0 %25,0 %11,0 %16,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
17. Februar 2026INSA25,5 %25,5 %11,0 %15,5 %10,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
17. Februar 2026Forsa25,0 %26,0 %12,0 %14,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
16. Februar 2026Ipsos26,0 %23,0 %13,0 %15,0 %12,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
14. Februar 2026INSA25,0 %25,0 %11,0 %16,0 %10,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
11. Februar 2026Verian (Emnid)24,0 %25,0 %12,0 %15,0 %11,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
11. Februar 2026YouGov25,0 %25,0 %11,0 %16,0 %10,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
10. Februar 2026Forsa24,0 %26,0 %13,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
10. Februar 2026INSA26,0 %25,5 %11,0 %15,5 %10,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
7. Februar 2026INSA26,0 %25,0 %11,0 %16,0 %10,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
6. Februar 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen24,0 %26,0 %13,0 %15,0 %10,0 %———
5. Februar 2026Infratest dimap24,0 %26,0 %12,0 %15,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
3. Februar 2026Forsa24,0 %26,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
3. Februar 2026INSA26,0 %26,0 %11,5 %15,5 %10,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
31. Januar 2026Allensbach25,0 %27,0 %11,5 %15,0 %10,0 %3,5 %——
31. Januar 2026INSA26,0 %26,0 %11,0 %16,0 %10,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
27. Januar 2026INSA26,0 %25,0 %11,5 %14,5 %10,5 %4,0 %4,5 %—
27. Januar 2026Forsa24,0 %26,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
24. Januar 2026INSA26,0 %25,0 %11,0 %15,0 %10,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
20. Januar 2026INSA26,0 %25,0 %12,0 %14,0 %10,5 %4,0 %4,0 %—
20. Januar 2026Forsa26,0 %25,0 %12,0 %14,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
17. Januar 2026INSA26,0 %25,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
16. Januar 2026Verian (Emnid)25,0 %26,0 %13,0 %15,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
16. Januar 2026Forschungsgruppe Wahlen25,0 %26,0 %12,0 %15,0 %10,0 %———
15. Januar 2026Ipsos26,0 %23,0 %13,0 %15,0 %11,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
14. Januar 2026pollytix26,0 %25,0 %12,0 %15,0 %10,0 %5,0 %3,0 %—
14. Januar 2026YouGov25,0 %25,0 %12,0 %16,0 %10,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
13. Januar 2026INSA26,0 %24,5 %12,0 %14,5 %10,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
13. Januar 2026Forsa26,0 %24,0 %13,0 %13,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
10. Januar 2026INSA26,0 %24,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %4,0 %3,0 %—
8. Januar 2026Infratest dimap25,0 %28,0 %12,0 %13,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
6. Januar 2026INSA25,5 %25,0 %11,0 %14,5 %11,0 %3,5 %4,0 %—
5. Januar 2026GMS27,0 %24,0 %12,0 %15,0 %10,0 %3,0 %4,0 %2,0 %
3. Januar 2026INSA26,0 %25,0 %11,0 %14,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
23. Dezember 2025INSA26,0 %24,5 %11,5 %14,0 %11,0 %3,5 %4,0 %—
23. Dezember 2025Forsa26,0 %24,0 %13,0 %13,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
21. Dezember 2025INSA26,0 %24,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
17. Dezember 2025YouGov26,0 %26,0 %12,0 %14,0 %10,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
16. Dezember 2025Forsa26,0 %24,0 %13,0 %13,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
16. Dezember 2025INSA26,0 %25,0 %10,5 %14,0 %10,5 %4,0 %4,5 %—
13. Dezember 2025INSA26,0 %24,0 %11,0 %14,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
12. Dezember 2025Forschungsgruppe Wahlen25,0 %26,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %———
11. Dezember 2025Allensbach25,0 %27,0 %12,5 %14,0 %9,0 %4,5 %3,0 %—
10. Dezember 2025Verian (Emnid)25,0 %25,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %4,0 %3,0 %
9. Dezember 2025Forsa26,0 %24,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
9. Dezember 2025INSA26,5 %24,5 %10,5 %15,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
6. Dezember 2025INSA26,0 %25,0 %10,0 %15,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
4. Dezember 2025Infratest dimap25,0 %27,0 %12,0 %14,0 %10,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
4. Dezember 2025Ipsos26,0 %23,0 %13,0 %15,0 %10,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
3. Dezember 2025pollytix26,0 %26,0 %11,0 %15,0 %10,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
2. Dezember 2025Forsa26,0 %25,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
2. Dezember 2025INSA27,0 %24,5 %11,0 %14,5 %10,5 %3,5 %4,0 %—
28. November 2025INSA27,0 %25,0 %11,0 %15,0 %10,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
25. November 2025Forsa26,0 %25,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
25. November 2025INSA26,0 %25,5 %11,0 %15,0 %10,5 %3,0 %4,0 %—
22. November 2025INSA26,0 %25,0 %11,0 %15,0 %10,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
21. November 2025Forschungsgruppe Wahlen27,0 %27,0 %12,0 %14,0 %9,0 %———
19. November 2025YouGov25,0 %27,0 %11,0 %14,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
18. November 2025Forsa26,0 %25,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %——
18. November 2025INSA26,0 %24,5 %11,0 %15,0 %11,0 %3,5 %4,0 %—
17. November 2025GMS26,0 %25,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
15. November 2025INSA26,0 %25,0 %11,0 %15,0 %11,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
14. November 2025Allensbach24,0 %27,0 %11,0 %15,5 %10,0 %3,5 %4,0 %—
12. November 2025Ipsos26,0 %24,0 %12,0 %15,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
11. November 2025Forsa26,0 %24,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
11. November 2025INSA26,0 %25,0 %11,5 %15,5 %10,5 %3,0 %4,0 %—
8. November 2025INSA26,0 %25,0 %12,0 %15,0 %11,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
7. November 2025Verian (Emnid)25,0 %26,0 %12,0 %15,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
7. November 2025Forschungsgruppe Wahlen26,0 %26,0 %12,0 %14,0 %10,0 %———
6. November 2025Infratest dimap26,0 %27,0 %12,0 %14,0 %10,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
4. November 2025Forsa26,0 %24,0 %12,0 %14,0 %12,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
3. November 2025INSA25,5 %25,5 %11,0 %15,0 %11,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
1. November 2025INSA26,0 %25,0 %11,0 %15,0 %11,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
28. Oktober 2025Forsa26,0 %25,0 %12,0 %13,0 %12,0 %3,0 %3,0 %—
27. Oktober 2025INSA26,0 %24,5 %11,0 %15,0 %11,5 %3,5 %4,0 %—
25. Oktober 2025INSA26,0 %24,0 %11,0 %15,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
24. Oktober 2025Forschungsgruppe Wahlen25,0 %27,0 %11,0 %15,0 %10,0 %———
21. Oktober 2025Forsa26,0 %24,0 %12,0 %14,0 %11,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
21. Oktober 2025INSA27,0 %24,5 %11,0 %14,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,5 %—
18. Oktober 2025INSA27,0 %25,0 %11,0 %14,0 %11,0 %4,0 %4,0 %—
17. Oktober 2025Allensbach25,0 %26,0 %11,0 %15,0 %11,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—
15. Oktober 2025YouGov26,0 %27,0 %11,0 %14,0 %10,0 %3,0 %4,0 %—

Umfragewerte von dawum.de, ODbL. Sonntagsfrage heißt: „Welche Partei würden Sie wählen, wenn am nächsten Sonntag Wahl wäre?" Die Werte sind gerundet; einzelne Institute weisen halbe Prozentpunkte aus.

Häufige Fragen

Wer würde die Bundestagswahl gewinnen?

Stärkste Kraft im Bund wäre die AfD mit 28,1 %. Dahinter: CDU/CSU 19,9 %, Grüne 15,0 %. Für eine Mehrheit sind 316 von 630 Sitzen nötig — das schaffen rechnerisch 7 Bündnisse, 3 davon ohne die AfD. Umfragen sind eine Momentaufnahme, keine Prognose des Wahlausgangs.

Wie ist die aktuelle Sonntagsfrage für den Bundestag?

Im Schnitt der letzten Umfragen liegt AfD bei 28,1 %, CDU/CSU bei 19,9 %, Grüne bei 15,0 %, SPD bei 13,2 %, Linke bei 11,2 %. Stand: 13. Oktober 2026, neueste Umfrage von INSA.

Welche Koalition hätte laut Sonntagsfrage eine Mehrheit?

Ohne die AfD: SPD + Grüne + CDU/CSU, Linke + Grüne + CDU/CSU, Linke + SPD + CDU/CSU. Mit der AfD: AfD + CDU/CSU, AfD + SPD + Grüne, AfD + Linke + Grüne. Nötig sind 316 von 630 Sitzen.

Wann ist die nächste Wahl im Bund?

Die nächste Wahl im Bundestag findet voraussichtlich Winter 2029 statt. Zuletzt gewählt wurde am 23. Februar 2025.

Wer regiert im Bund zurzeit?

Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (CDU), im Amt seit Mai 2025. Die Regierung tragen Wer würde die Bundestagswahl gewinnen?. CDU/CSU und SPD stellen gemeinsam die Regierung. Nach dieser Umfrage kämen sie auf 238 von 630 Sitzen — das sind 78 Sitze zu wenig für die Mehrheit von 316. Bei der Wahl 2025 waren es 328 Sitze.

Wie viele Sitze hat der Bundestag?

630 Sitze. Für eine Mehrheit sind 316 davon nötig. Verteilt werden sie nach dem Sainte-Laguë/Schepers-Verfahren.

Was ist der Institutsschnitt?

Der Mittelwert der jeweils letzten Umfrage jedes Instituts aus den vergangenen 45 Tagen — hier aus 10 Instituten: INSA (13. Oktober 2026), Forsa (13. Oktober 2026), Ipsos (8. Oktober 2026), Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (8. Oktober 2026), Infratest dimap (1. Oktober 2026), Verian (Emnid) (25. September 2026), Allensbach (24. September 2026), pollytix (16. September 2026), YouGov (15. September 2026), GMS (14. September 2026). Einzelne Ausreißer fallen so weniger ins Gewicht als bei der neuesten Umfrage allein.

Wie werden aus Prozenten Sitze?

Nach dem Sainte-Laguë/Schepers-Verfahren, das im Bundestag gilt. Parteien unter 5 Prozent bleiben unberücksichtigt; ihre Stimmen verteilen sich rechnerisch auf die übrigen.

Mehr zu Bundestag: Koalitionsrechner Bundestag · Sitzverteilung Bundestag · Wer regiert im Bund?
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